Sunday, May 27, 2012

[stat] Miracle cube probability [Credits to Locked @ SPF]

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Locked@SPF
Disclaimer
Before you flame me, please don't hold the probabilities in this thread as completely true. The only source that I've gotten this information is from two miracle cube simulators and a few insoya threads. The values were all the same, some of the threads were deleted and so on. The purpose of this thread is similar to those in the Module, except that this one has the supposed probabilities that Koreans advertise.
Original post

I only concern bout the weapon stat's for miracle cubing and thus, I'll only calculate the probability bout getting the real miracle's stat.

In legendary rank of weapon, you might pick the attributes from one of the following tables:

Unique primary, Legendary secondary

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OR

Legendary primary

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Assuming you're aiming for a double-line boss damage, the calculation should be
Quote from IcyHaze
Quote:
Originally Posted by IcyHaze View Post
There is two table. Legendary and unique. The assumption I am making is the game chooses between this two table on a equal chance. 50:50

So if you want to calculate, you need to merge the two table into one.

Unique table is simplified as follow since we are only interested in boss dmg.
Others: 89.8%
Boss dmg: 10.2%

Legendary table
Others: 86.5%
Boss dmg: 13.5%

The combine table will be
Others: 89.8*0.5 + 86.5*0.5 = 88.15% (O)
Boss dmg unique: 10.2*0.5 = 5.1% (U)
Boss dmg legendary: 13.5*0.5 = 6.75% (L)

88.15+5.1+6.75=100
New table probability checked to be correct.

The combine table probability is what is use to calculate. The L, U and O.


Case a)
P(X=2liner from legendary only)
=3C2*0.0675^2*0.8815 =0.012049003125

Case b)
P(X=2liner)
=LLO + LUO + UUO
= 3C2*0.8815* [0.0675^2 + 0.0675*0.051 + 0.051^2]
=0.028031038875

Conclusion: Less then 2% chance if you only want legendary boss dmg liner and you get another 1%++ if you do not mind the unique lines.


Basically you use half the percentage except for others which you half it and combine. Calculation is making use of the same assumption as you. 50:50 to choose pot stats from either legendary or unique table.

LLO= 3C2*0.0675^2*0.8815
LUO= 3C2*0.0675*0.051*0.8815
UUO= 3C2*0.051*2*0.8815


for case (a), E(X) is approximately 83cubes (224k for maybe 70% boss damage increment, seeing a miracle scroll which +5wa = 100k, legendary rank boss FTW)

whereas for case (b), E(X) is around 36 cubes. (97k. mmm, this should be the lucky one who got promoted to legendary rank and got it within 36cubes )

good luck all on getting double-line-boss 

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